DCAFProject › Identifying patterns of theories of change in SSR-related evaluations

Identifying patterns of theories of change in SSR-related evaluations

Ongoing Project

While it is essential for evaluations to verify the theory of change on which an intervention is based, the project on Enhancing the measurement of the impact of SSR support: Comparative analysis of SSR-related evaluations  found that in most evaluations the theories of change are unstated or only partially articulated. This is a major shortcoming in terms of strengthening the ability of the SSR community to plan and learn from its support. Indeed, theories of change play an important role in supporting the articulation of expected results and making assumptions explicit to enable critical reflection reflection at the planning stage. Moreover, theories of change contribute to learning by enabling a better understanding of whether failure was due to flaws in the intervention logic or due to challenges in implementation.

This project seeks to map the implicit theories of change underpinning a subsample of SSR-related evaluations included in the evaluation database developed by DCAF. In a next step, the reconstructed theories of change will be systematically compared and analysed to develop categories of theories of change. The comparative analysis will highlight what theories of change are most frequently used in the area of SSR, as well as provide insights into what type of support is making a difference or not in national efforts to enhance the governance of the security sector.

This project is being conducted with the support of a research grant provided by the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA).